Iron ore prices fell to a 13-month low due to a cautious demand outlook.

Global iron ore prices have fallen to their lowest level in 13 months, reflecting cautious market sentiment over the outlook for steel consumption in China and supply developments on the international market. On the Singapore Exchange (SGX), iron ore futures at one point fell to US$92.85 per tonne, the lowest level since the end of June 2025, before recovering slightly at the close. This was also the first time in more than a year that iron ore prices had fallen below the US$93 per tonne threshold.

According to analysts, the main reason lies in the fact that steel demand in China is in a seasonal low period, while the profit margins of many steel mills remain modest. Against this backdrop, businesses tend to optimise their existing inventories and consider more carefully before signing new raw material purchase contracts, causing trading activity on the iron ore market to slow down.

Besides the demand factor, the market is also closely monitoring China's economic support policies, particularly those for the real estate and infrastructure investment sectors. Although investors still expect further growth-promoting measures in the time ahead, there has so far been little new information sufficient to create clear momentum for the market. This has kept trading sentiment cautious.

On the supply side, major mining groups such as Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale and Fortescue continue to maintain stable production and export plans. In its latest report, Fortescue stated that shipment volumes remained in line with plan and that the company continues to target maintaining output at a high level in the coming financial year. Relatively stable seaborne supply is one of the factors helping to keep iron ore prices in the low range.

In addition, the market is also monitoring changes in the procurement and raw material management activities of the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG). Adjustments to trading mechanisms and contract negotiations among market participants are seen as potentially affecting the pace of iron ore trading in the period ahead.

According to assessments by a number of market research organisations, when iron ore prices remain below US$95 per tonne, the operating efficiency of some higher-cost miners may be affected. If the price level continues to hold around US$90 per tonne for a prolonged period, some companies may consider adjusting their production plans or optimising costs to suit market conditions.

In the short term, developments on the iron ore market will continue to depend on three main factors: steel consumption demand in China after the seasonal low period, economic support policies if they are implemented, and the supply situation from the world's major miners. These will be the key factors shaping the trend of iron ore prices in the time ahead.