China Ferrosilicon Market: Futures Volatility, Stable Spot Prices Ahead of Spring Festival

Last week, ferrosilicon futures prices dipped initially before rebounding. Raw material costs remained relatively unchanged, and the market awaited final confirmation of the Inner Mongolia electricity price adjustment.

Factory output remained stable with minimal change in daily production. As the year-end approaches, downstream steelmakers began stocking inventories, resulting in moderate trading activity. Plant-run spot deliveries were tight, although delivery warehouses maintained stocks. Steel mill bidding prices ranged between ~5,760–5,840 CNY/ton (~827–839 USD/ton).

Raw material prices:

• Silica (Qinghai & Ningxia): 160–200 CNY/ton (~23–29 USD/ton)
• Semi-coke (Shenmu/Fugu): 740–780 CNY/ton (~106–112 USD/ton)
• Iron oxide scale 70# (Hebei): 690–730 CNY/ton (~99–105 USD/ton)

Estimated production costs (reference only) were:

• Ferrosilicon 72% – Qinghai: 5,844 CNY/ton (~840 USD/ton)
• Ferrosilicon 72% – Ningxia: 5,353 CNY/ton (~770 USD/ton)

Spot ex-works cash prices were:

• Ferrosilicon 72%: 5,200–5,300 CNY/ton (~748–762 USD/ton)
• Ferrosilicon 75%: 5,700–5,800 CNY/ton (~819–833 USD/ton)

Approaching the Spring Festival, some steel mills and traders placed February orders, boosting transaction activity. Factory supply remained tight, but delivery warehouses had inventory available. Due to limited availability, ferrosilicon 75% delivery prices in Shaanxi rose to ~5,900 CNY/ton (~848 USD/ton).

Production remained near 14,510 tons/day, slightly down from the previous week. A few plants scheduled maintenance this week could tighten supply.

Downstream quotations improved slightly, with some buyers placing orders near 16,300–16,400 CNY/ton (~2,344–2,358 USD/ton), though acceptance weakened at higher price levels. With raw material costs stable and electricity pricing in Inner Mongolia pending, spot prices are forecast to remain stable in the short term, while steel mill bidding prices may edge down this week.