Goldman Sachs turns bearish on aluminium price for 2025 amid tariff impact

Goldman Sachs turns bearish on aluminium price for 2025 amid tariff impact

Goldman Sachs revised its aluminium price forecast for 2025, adopting a bearish outlook due to the impact of newly imposed US tariffs on aluminium and auto parts imports.

The investment bank now expects aluminium prices to average $2,000 per tonne in the third quarter of 2025 — a significant downgrade from its previous forecast issued just six months ago. While prices are anticipated to rebound slightly by December to $2,300 per tonne, this figure still falls short of the earlier projection of $2,650.

In addition to revising aluminium price outlook, Goldman Sachs also shifted its global market forecast, now predicting a surplus of 580,000 tonnes for 2025. This marks a stark contrast to its earlier expectation of a 76,000-tonne deficit. The revision reflects a downturn in global aluminium demand, which is now expected to decline by 1.1 per cent year-on-year in 2025 and by 2.3 per cent in 2026. Previously, Goldman had projected demand growth of 2.6 per cent in 2025 and 2.4 per cent in 2026, aligned with stronger global GDP expectations.

Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs maintains that aluminium prices will rise again from 2026 onward, though at a slower pace than initially anticipated. By December 2026, prices are forecast to reach $2,720 per tonne — down from the earlier estimate of $3,100. In 2027, prices are projected to average $2,800 per tonne as the market moves into a 722,000 tonnes deficit.